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Posts Tagged ‘Ed Gillespie’

Election Post Mortem

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , , on November 5, 2014| Leave a Comment »

With several races yet to be determined, we do know that Republicans have gained a majority in the U.S. Senate.  With this change, pro-rights forces have also strengthened their hand in the chamber.  Here in Virginia, it appears that NRA “C” rated Senator Mark Warner has survived a scare from Republican Ed Gillespie with Warner clinging to a lead of just under 13,000 votes, although Warner has yet to claim victory and Gillespie has yet to concede.  It is possible that neither will happen until the state canvass votes is complete.  One note on the Gillespie race, if all of the people who cast a vote for 7th District GOP candidate Dave Brat and 10th District GOP candidate Barbara Comstock had also cast their ballots for Ed Gillespie, he would be celebrating victory.  For instance, in Chesterfield County, Gillespie underperformed the two GOP House Candidates also on the ballot (Chesterfield is split between the 4th and 7th Congressional Districts) by almost 5500 votes – almost half of his overall margin of loss.  How people could vote for Dave Brat and then cast a vote for Mark Warner, someone who has supported Barack Obama 97% of the time, is beyond me.

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Even though he is likely to win, Warner has to be smarting this morning.  Dan Palazzolo, a professor of political science at the University of Richmond, told the Richmond Times Dispatch:

“Voter turnout matters greatly. Too many Democrats stayed home, which is as much a reflection on Warner than Obama. He has lost 15 percent of his vote share from 2008.”

Over all, it was a good night for gun owners but there were some While candidates supporting firearm freedom won across the nation, gun owners in Washington State suffered a loss with the passage of Initiative 594 (I-594).  That is the initiative that supporters said would require background checks before you sell your privately owned firearm to another private individual, but in reality does much more. I-594 was approved with about 60% of the vote and the competing initiative I-591, which would not allow any background checks that exceeds what federal law was losing with about 55% of the vote against.  The gun ban lobby is already gathering signatures for a similar initiative in Nevada, and future campaigns are being planned for Arizona and Maine.  Look for them to push even harder for such a law in Virginia from the General Assembly.  Virginia is not an initiative state and their only avenue is to get the General Assembly to pass a law.

So, this election is behind us (with one runoff to be held in Louisiana) and we now look forward to the General Assembly elections in Virginia in 2015 where all 100 seats of the House of Delegates and 40 seats in the State Senate are up.  We have a very slim pro-rights margin in the State Senate and we need to protect and hopefully build in that next year.  Gun owners and take a break and enjoy the holidays, but then it’s time to get back to work in 2015.

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Quinnipiac University Has Warner Lead over Gillespie at Single Digits

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , , on September 25, 2014| Leave a Comment »

The Richmond Times Dispatch reports this morning that a new Quinnipiac University poll has Mark Warner’s lead at nine points and under the magical 50% number with the election less than six weeks away.  The RTD notes that Warner may have more to fear from outside the Commonwealth than inside referring to a possible “GOP Wave” that could take Warner down much as the Democrat wave of 2006 took down then Senator George Allen:

Sen. Warner probably has more to fear from outside rather than inside Virginia. If the election turns out to be the kind of national wave for which Republicans are hoping, he might be the kind of incumbent who could find himself tossed around like Republicans were in 2006 and Democrats were in 2010,” Brown said.

Brown added that while Gillespie is within single digits of Warner, significant challenges remain for the challenger in the closing days of the campaign.

 “Actually Gillespie is tied with Warner among independents but the incumbent’s lead rests on Sen. Warner doing about 15 percentage points better among Democrats than Gillespie does among Republicans,” Brown said.

The article also noted that Warner has been able to maintain a lead and remained popular in Virginia because he is “one of the more conservative Democrats in the Senate.”  That is more appearance than reality.  While Warner was forced to govern more conservatively as Governor of Virginia because he had a GOP controlled legislature, he has voted in favor of initiatives supported by President Obama 97% of the time, including a vote to criminalize the private transfer of firearms.

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Other polls released in the last couple of days show Warner with a larger lead.  The sample in the Quinnipiac poll is just a little over a thousand people with a margin of error of approximately 3%, which is considered a good size sample.

Yesterday, the NRA Political Victory Fund endorsed Ed Gillespie.  You can download an NRA flyer here that can be distributed at your gun and/or hunting club.

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Bad News For Gillespie in CNU Poll

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , on September 10, 2014| Leave a Comment »

Warner leads Gillespie 53-31.  Bearing Drift has the story here .Warner is benefitting from stronger support among Democrats than Gillespie has among Republicans, and strong support from independents. He also has significant support from Republicans.

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NRA-ILA Calls Out Warner in New Mailing

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , , , on September 9, 2014| 1 Comment »

In the latest mailing to Virginia gun owners, NRA-ILA calls out Mark Warner for his vote in April of 2014 that would have criminalized gun sales between lifelong friends and family members:

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As the above graphic shows, NRA-ILA also reminds gun owners that Mark Warner has voted for every anti-gun U.S. Supreme Court nominee.

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In their last mailing, NRA-ILA simply noted that GOP nominee Ed Gillespie would stop the Obama/Bloomberg gun ban agenda without any mention of Mark Warner.  In this mailing, they have stepped up their support for Gillespie by calling out Warner for his voting record.

warner2014This race is still considered a safe Democrat seat.  However, Warner has made the unusual move to agree to six joint appearances with Gillespie between now and the end of the campaign.  Incumbents who are in races that polls show a double digit lead usually ignor their opponents.  Be that as it may, Warner has agreed to meet Gillespie in two televised debates: on Oct. 7 in Fairfax County and on Oct. 13 in Richmond.  They will also have four joint appearances: two in Northern Virginia in September (one of which was held yesterday), one in Danville in October and another TBA.  It should be noted that in the four “joint appearances” the two candidates are unlikely to interact as they would in a debate.

In a Q&A that the Richmond Times Dispatch published this past Sunday, Warner told the paper that while he was a supporter of Second Amendment rights, he believes that “reasonable rules” should be passed to strengthen background checks.

Gun owners should do all they can to help Gillespie defeat Mark Warner.  You find the closest Gillespie office to you by clicking here.

 

 

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Will NRA Ads Hurt Gillespie in Virginia?

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , , , , on August 25, 2014| Leave a Comment »

That’s the question the Washington Post asked in this article over the weekend:

In addition to airing TV ads in several states, the NRA blanketed its home state — the group’s headquarters is in Fairfax County — with direct-mail material touting Republican Ed Gillespie, the former lobbyist who is running against Sen. Mark R. Warner (D). Gillespie, the mailer says, is the antidote to the “Obama/Bloomberg gun control agenda.” And more are expected.

The ad could have unintended consequences for Gillespie, who secured the nomination in part by courting tea party conservatives but who is now trying to woo more-moderate general-election voters.

Gillespie risks alienating the electorate in vote-rich Northern Virginia who may be turned off by Second Amendment rhetoric, especially after mass shootings at Virginia Tech in 2007 and an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., in 2012.

As the article goes on the Post points out that in some parts of Virginia, that message may resonate but in others like Northern Virginia and Tidewater, they may alienate “moderate” voters that Gillespie needs to pull an upset.  But the Post should know that the NRA is mailing that piece to friendly voters – either NRA members, or lists they have purchased or acquired of like minded voters like hunters.  So, that flyer is likely not to have a negative impact on Gillespie.

However, Tom Gresham brought up a more important point on his radio program yesterday about the larger NRA ads hitting Michael Bloomberg, ads also discussed in the Post article.  The ads in question start out talking about how “liberals” view our country then goes on to talk about Bloomberg and “elitists.”  Gresham question if the term liberals might not turn off some people who are with us on gun rights.

Gresham is not the first to make this point.  Shortly after this year’s NRA Annual Meeting this year, Sebastian over at Shall Not Be Questioned asked if NRA’s messaging was getting too doctrinaire conservative:

If we’re going to have long term security for this issue, it needs to be bipartisan. I believe the Republican Party may enjoy some short-term success over the next several years, if only because of overreach by the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. But over the long-term, if the Republicans do not adjust their own message to be more palatable to younger voters, demographics will turn to the Democratic Party into the dominant party. And then what? Any strategy for preserving gun rights has to recognize that there are a lot of gun people out there who are not doctrinaire conservatives, and even liberals. I’m always surprised by how many liberal gun owners read this site.

I don’t presume to know more than NRA on this subject, but I do think both Gresham and Sebastian make good points.

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They Lied

Posted in gun rights, Politics, tagged , , , , , , , , on May 21, 2014| Leave a Comment »

Not gun related but it is election related and includes Virginia Senator Mark Warner.  This morning Jim Geraghty shared the below video as part of his Morning Jolt daily newsletter.

Obamacare is unpopular even in Virginia and “Mr. Bipartisan” Mark Warner could  take hits in is poll numbers if he is hammered enough with ads like this either by outside groups or the eventual GOP opponent.  The GOP will pick its candidate at the state GOP convention in early June.

Warner looked unbeatable going into this year’s election until former RNC and VAGOP party chairman Ed Gillespie jumped in the race.  If the GOP doesn’t commit suicide at its convention in June, the election could end up being a close race.  Despite his claims of bipartisanship, Warner has voted with Obama on almost every issue.  He also voted for the Manchin/Schumer/Toomey amendment to the 2013 gun ban legislation that would have criminalized private transfers of firearms.  For 13 years Warner has tried to cultivate a pro-gun persona.  One vote in 2013 likely changed all of that.  He wasn’t endorsed in 2008 but had an “A” rating from the NRA based on the fact he signed a number of pro-gun bills as governor.  His opponent in 2008 was former Governor and NRA Board Member Jim Gilmore, who also had an “A” rating.  We’ll see what the 2014 rating will be after having voted for Manchin as well as two anti-gun Supreme Court nominees, votes that the NRA scored.

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